Poll Pits Trump Against Obama in Hypothetical 2028 Matchup
Survey shows former president would beat Trump — if the Constitution allowed it
It sounds like something out of political fan fiction: Donald Trump and Barack Obama facing off in a presidential race.
Of course, such a showdown could never happen under current law. The Constitution’s 22nd Amendment limits presidents to two terms, which disqualifies both men. Still, the idea has captured attention — and now, a new poll suggests how Americans would vote if it were possible.
Trump: “I’d love that”
The speculation comes after Trump himself recently floated the possibility of a third term. When asked earlier this year how he would feel about running against his predecessor in 2028, Trump was quick to respond.
“I’d love that. That would be a good one. I’d like that,” he said in the Oval Office.
Pressed further, he added: “No people are asking me to run, and there’s a whole story about running for a third term. I don’t know. I never looked into it. They do say there’s a way you can do it, but I don’t know about that… I want to do a fantastic job. We have four years.”
It’s not the first time the 45th and now 47th president has teased the idea. In an interview with NBC News earlier this year, Trump smiled as he remarked: “A lot of people want me to do it… I like working. I’m not joking. There are methods [through] which you could do it.”
Poll shows Obama with clear edge
While the matchup remains purely hypothetical, Daily Mail and J.L. Partners decided to test voter sentiment anyway. Their survey of 1,013 registered voters produced striking results:
52% said they would back Barack Obama
41% said they would support Donald Trump
The poll found particularly strong numbers for Obama among minority voters, with 73% of Hispanic respondents and 68% of Black respondents favoring the former Democratic president.
Perhaps most notably, Obama was the only Democratic figure tested who came out ahead of Trump in the polling. When Hillary Clinton or Vice President Kamala Harris were matched against him, Trump held the advantage.
Political legacies collide — at least on paper
Obama swept into office in 2008 and won reelection in 2012. Trump followed with his upset victory in 2016, lost in 2020, and staged a political comeback in 2024.
Though their presidencies have defined American politics over the past two decades, the two men have never actually faced each other at the ballot box. This poll offers the closest glimpse of what that contest might look like.
Could it ever happen?
In reality, both men are barred from running again. Amending the Constitution would require two-thirds approval in both the House and Senate, plus ratification by 38 state legislatures — a nearly impossible political lift.
Still, Trump has repeatedly hinted he would be open to challenging the two-term limit. “I’m not joking,” he said earlier this year. “There are methods.”
For now, the matchup remains a “what if.” But in a political era where the improbable has often become reality, some are reluctant to rule out anything entirely.
